Lately, I have been reading multiple theories on how randomness plays a hidden but huge role in our lives, with us barely noticing it. Certain events that happen to us are just beyond our control. Who would have thought in 10th grade that I would end up doing my bachelor's in chemical engineering, or become a product manager in my first job?
But the human mind is adept at finding patterns everywhere. That's how it has helped us survive difficult times — from ice ages to wars. But this also creates a lot of false connections in our minds, of seemingly unrelated things, just to keep us satisfied. It hinders our ability when important decisions are to be made.
Where probability comes in
Probability comes to our rescue here. It helps us judge the chance of a desired outcome, while also preparing us in case of a negative result.
If only we could think in bets — trying to just improve our odds little by little at each step — I feel we would be better off. Compounding also comes into the picture over sustained periods.
As humans, it's very hard to think between 0 and 1. For most of our lives it's always been right or wrong, victory or loss, success or failure. And since almost everything follows a bell curve, everyone can only be an outlier to a certain extent.
What I take from this
- Find the bell curve most suitable for your own traits and skills.
- Estimate the max limit possible by extrapolating efforts, to keep desired outcomes in check.
- Take each decision to increase the odds in your favor, wherever possible.
A practical example — running
Let's say I want to become a really good runner and haven't run much before.
Thinking with probability:
- How much could I target to run X km in Y minutes by Z month?
- What would be a reasonable max pace for me?
- I’ve eaten healthy today, a lot of junk next few days, healthy again. Net-net my health remained the same.
This approach has helped me set achievable goals (which don’t keep moving), reduced self-doubt and kept me on track to finally complete things.